GUEST POST: NFL Draft Night, Day 1 by Derick Alt

NFL draft night, day 1, is one of my favorite nights of the year. Get some friends together, everyone makes a mock draft, and have fun yelling at the TV when someone trades up to the top 5 for some second round QB, completely ruining your entire board. (I’m looking at you New York Giants) For one night, we get to pretend we know more about football then these “Experts”, and occasionally we are right.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

a. This one is easy. We all know he is going first. Let us move on.

2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

a. The Jets are done with Darnold, and Wilson’s pro day went well enough to lock this one in. Popular pick; no surprises.

3. San Francisco 49ers – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

a. The 49ers traded up from 12, and paid a high price, for this pick. They didn’t do that for an OL. They are going QB. They must love 2 QBs after Lawrence, Wilson most likely being 1, and Fields is most likely the other one.

4. Atlanta Falcons – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

a. The draft really starts at 4. The first 3 picks all went QB, meaning the Falcons have a lot of options. They most likely wanted to go QB themselves, but they can’t take the #4 QB over the best non-QB options on the board. Matt Ryan was one of the most sacked QB’s in the league in 2020, so taking Sewell here just makes too much sense. There is some talk lately that he is dropping on teams’ big boards – don’t believe it.

5. Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

a. The Bengals would have loved Sewell, but just missed out on him to the Falcons. No other OL warrants a top 5 pick, so they look to skill positions. Their QB wants Chase, and he fills a need. They shouldn’t overthink this; just make your QB happy.

6. Miami Dolphins – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

a. The Dolphins traded back to 12, but then jumped up to 6, which tells us 2 things. First, they do not need to reach for QB and are sticking with Tua. Second, they do want to get one of the big talents on the board, otherwise they would have stayed at 12. The only blue-chip talent that is likely to be available at 6, but will definitely be gone by 12 is Kyle Pitts. He also fills a need, so this one seems obvious to me.

7. Detroit Lions – DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

a. Interesting pick here. He won the Heisman, but is not even a lock to be the top prospect from his own team. I guarantee that many teams would rather have Waddle, but Smith’s skill set just fits too well with new QB Jared Goff, and so the Lions break the tie based on that.

8. Carolina Panthers – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

a. The Panthers want Trey Lance. They understand they aren’t getting one of the top 3 guys, and they don’t care. Lance is their guy. Many experts are projecting a trade up, but I don’t see it. Every team listed so far matched up perfectly with their pick, and wont give that up unless a team really over pays. No one is going to over pay for Lance.

9. Denver Broncos – Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

a. The first defensive player taken, all the way down here at 9. That is rare, even in the modern era. Denver has to contend with a lot of fire power in that division, and so taking the best CB in the draft makes sense.

10. Dallas Cowboys – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

a. I don’t think I have seen a single mock draft yet that didn’t have Dallas taking a CB. Farley is a day 1 starter, and some boards even rank him higher than Surtain, so this is an easy pick.

11. New York Giants – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

a. The Giants love this kid, and for good reason. He is going to be a star for many years. As an Eagles fan, I was really hoping to see him drop one more spot, but alas, he goes to NY instead. Great fit.

12. Philadelphia Eagles – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

a. This is a lock right? His name is Jaylen, nuff said. The fans want a pass catcher bad, and he is by far the best one left, so this really should be a no brainer at this spot. But Howie gotta Howie. We all know he is going to draft an undersized defensive lineman. That or a QB. We are a QB factory after all.

13. Los Angeles Chargers – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

a. OL is the top need for the Chargers, and Slater here is not a reach. When BPA and need line up, your job is easy. Just take the kid and move on.

14. Minnesota Vikings – Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL, USC

a. This is when things start to get hard. Teams could trade back. They could reach for a need. The ‘obvious’ picks are all behind us. The Vikings need lots of OL help, and Vera-Tucker has versatility with playing guard and tackle, so I think they take him with the hopes of using that flexibility to their advantage.

15. New England Patriots – Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan

a. A lot of people are projecting a QB, like Mac Jones, here. I disagree. This is the Patriots we are talking about. They are going to go BPA, which usually means a pass rusher. The best pass rusher in the draft is still on the board in Kwity Paye, so that is my pick.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

a. The loss of Peterson is significant. They signed Malcom Butler, but that isn’t enough to replace such a talent. Horn is a big talent and will most likely start on day 1.

17. Las Vegas Raiders – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

a. Am I wrong, or does Darrisaw just sound like a Raider? This is a pick that just feels right to me. Of course, when he gets drafted by someone else, I am going to forever feel robbed. Darrisaw will always be a Raider in my heart.

18. Miami Dolphins – Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami

a. I am sure the Eagles are upset they can’t get another Jaelan on the team, but Phillips is too good, and fits too well for Miami to pass up. He is local, so you know the Dolphins are closely looking at him.

19. Washington – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

a. Washington drafts on need more than any other team in the league, which makes them hard to predict. They could easily take the 20^th best player available if they think he will fit well. Luckily, Owusu is near the top of the board and fits well, so I will place him here. I am never comfortable with my Washington mocks.

20. Chicago Bears – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

a. The Bears are a weird team. They play in a cold and windy stadium, which makes QB play more difficult. Because of this, their most successful eras have been built around running the ball and playing defense. Nevertheless, recent trends suggest they want to go vertical. They traded up big time for a Trubisky, and never got a return for their investment. Now they are going to try again with Mac Jones. They might even trade up to get him. And then in 5 years, expect them to do the same thing again.

21. Indianapolis Colts – Rashod Batemen, WR, Minnesota

a. The Colts know what Carson Wentz can do when he has help. They also know what happens when you ask him to play hero ball. If they are smart, they will get him as much help as possible. Batemen is an easy, safe, pick and should be the most talented WR Carson has ever played with.

22. Tennessee Titans – Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State

a. The Titans drafted an OT in the first round of 2020, but he is already out of the league. This is a team that values their line highly, and so they will go that direction again this year.

23. New York Jets – Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia

a. The Jets need so much help. They are a bad football team. But they got their QB earlier, and now they are going for an edge rusher. That’s a good formula to rebuild a franchise and should translate to wins very soon.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris – RB, Alabama

a. Harris can run downhill, or work in a zone scheme, which makes him a great add to the Pittsburgh backfield. Their running game was one of the worst in the league in 2020, and it still needs help up front, but Harris keeps them from being forced into a scheme, making rebuilding much easier.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevon Moerhig, S, TCU

a. A smart, fundamentally strong, coverage safety who can jam the box when needed. This kid will be the captain of the defense in a few years. I read recently that first round safeties are the only position with a pro bowl rate above 50%. Paired with Lawrence, the Jaguars may be the best team in that division once these guys are fully developed.

26. Cleveland Browns – Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami

a. A project pick, with high potential. Rousseau was a stud in 2019, but opted out of 2020, and had a bad pro day. He is a work in progress but will benefit greatly from playing alongside Myles Garrett.

27.  Baltimore Ravens – Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas

a. Cosmi started 34 games in college, which makes him the most experienced lineman in the draft. His fundamentals need work, but his raw talent is enough to overcome that; at least it was college.

28. New Orleans Saints – Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn State

a. The loss of Drew Brees gets the headlines, but the Saints have never prioritized offense. Even when they signed Brees, no one knew he was going to be as good as he was. They will stay true to their nature and go defense here, taking the best pass rusher available.

29. Green Bay Packers – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

a. The biggest hole on the Packers offense is slot receiver, and Toney may be the best slot guy in the draft. This seems like a natural fit. I also hope this happens, because Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are one of the most entertaining teams in the league when they have the talent.

30. Buffalo Bills – Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern

a. Newsome had a great end to his College season, pushing him up into first round range. The Bills don’t really need a whole lot, so they have the luxury of taking a high upside guy here.

31. Kansas City Chiefs – Baron Browning, LB, Ohio State

a. Browning was inconsistent in college, but when he was good, he was really good. The Chiefs have the best offense in football, so they don’t really need anything over there, so they can take a project on defense and focus on developing him.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama

a. The Bucs don’t need a DL. They don’t really need anything. They won the Super Bowl, and somehow managed to resign everyone and keep the team together. But the team wont be together forever, and Barmore gives them a rotational player now, with the potential to be a future starter in a year or two.

Thanks for reading, you can follow Derick on twitter @falt86. Listen to our latest episode on Spotify, follow us @qbfactoryshow on Instagram to catch us live on Thursday nights.