QBFS 2021 Big Board: The Running Back Edition

Well it is that time of the year, the most wonderful time of the year for draftnik's. Over the next two weeks we will be doing position by position big boards and analyzing the players. This will all culminate in the assembling of the first ever QBFS Top 100 big board.

In this edition of the QBFS big board we will be reviewing the running backs. Running backs were for a while, becoming severely devalued throughout the NFL, but thanks to guys like Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffery, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara; the position is back on the rise. Running backs come in all different shapes and styles; two teams could have wildly different valuations of a player based on their system. We see a wide variety of running backs in this class. Some of them are dominant bruisers, some of them are WRs who line up in the backfield. With a class this deep and versatile there will be some great players left off, but we will try to add anyone we missed to our overall big board when we wrap up the positional breakdowns. So without further ado, we start at number one.

1. Najee Harris, Alabama, Sr.

Najee Harris is everything a scout looks for in a modern running back. He excels in almost every aspect of the game at his position. He has a powerful 6’2 230lb frame and uses every pound of it to batter opposing defenses. He can move the pile for those hard fought yards, and convert the 3rd/4th and short situations. He plays much lower than his 6’2 height would suggest, pairing that with his 230 pound frame makes him a load to tackle in the open field. Don't be fooled into thinking Harris is a one trick pony based on his size, he is a legitimate threat to break off a long run at any time. Harris has exceptional vision and a tremendous first step. He may not post that sub 4.4 40 time but he hits the hole with purpose, and if he makes the first man miss it is off to the races. He has that blend of size and speed that no defense wants to see; he is too fast for most lineman and linebackers and far too strong for most players in the secondary. Najee Harris is also exceptional in all facets of the pass game. He is an above average route runner, has very soft hands,and is a tremendous pass blocker. Even if he doesn't profile as a Christian McCaffery type pass catcher, his ability to excel in that part of the game allows him to be a true three down back. Najee Harris has star potential written all over him, any team will be lucky to have him. Najee Harris compares well to fellow Crimson Tide alum Derrick Henry.

2. Travis Etienne, Clemson, Sr.

Travis Etienne is as explosive as they come and could legitimately become a Christian McCaffery type of pro. He is one of the best pass catching running backs in the class and has the speed and elusiveness to take one to the house on any play. A four year contributor for the Tigers, Etienne has been a human highlight reel since 2017. Over the course of his career he put up nearly 5,000 on the ground, 1,115 through the air and 78 touchdowns; with an average of 7.2 yards per carry and 11.2 yards per catch. He has a deadly arsenal of moves in the open field, he spun a couple defenders out of their cleats. He is as shifty as they come at the running back position and has excellent field vision, seemingly having eyes in the back of his head. His patience at the line of scrimmage is a big reason why he has scored so many touchdowns, things seem to slow down for him with the ball in his hands; and the moment he sees the hole he shoots through it like a shot out of a cannon. While he is very explosive there are some concerns about his ability to gain yards after contact, he comes in at 205 lbs but he isn't known for breaking tackles once a defender latches on. He is not a great pass blocker which can be a bit of an issue seeing that one of his best traits is his proficiency in the passing game. He also has a bit of a fumbling problem, which in the past has been corrected by good coaching, but that is not always the case. Some guys just cough up the ball. The strengths most definitely outweigh any weaknesses. Etienne will certainly be a top 50 pick and has the potential to be the game breaking running back that any team would love to have. Travis Etienne profiles as an Austin Ekeler type of player.

3. Kenny Gainwell, Memphis, Jr.

Speed, speed, speed. That's the name of the game and there aren't many better than Kenny Gainwell. This kid is pure lightning from anywhere on the field, he is just as good of a receiver as he is a running back. He has a diminutive frame at only 5’10 190lbs, but he plays much bigger than his size would suggest. Gainwell is met with some caution, he only had one real year of college football; not seeing much action as a freshman and opting out of his junior year. But boy oh boy was his sophomore year enticing. In 2019 Gainwell posted 1,459 yards rushing, 610 yards receiving and 16 total touchdowns…. all while sharing the backfield with Washington Football Team’s breakout rookie Antonio Gibson. The NFL is always looking for the next gadget player, someone who can get the rock in their hands in a multitude of ways and Gainwell fits that bill. Unlike most running backs who do most of their receiving out of the backfield on screens and check downs, Gainwell can line up at the X, Z or in the slot. He is a crispy route runner and has an ability to track the deep ball better than a few wide receivers. As a runner he has impeccable balance and change of direction. He rarely gets stopped behind the line and even when a play is broken he finds a way to squeeze out a yard or two. He can accelerate to full speed with a yard or two of space making him a constant threat to take it to the house. His balance is top notch, running through and around defenders frequently; the first man to him generally does not take him down. Patience is going to be the biggest key to his success on the ground at the next level; he likes to get out in front of his blockers finding himself ahead of the play and not getting as many yards as he probably should. There are times where it’s okay to get vertical or outside immediately, but not every play. Gainwell has some of the highest upside in this class regardless of position and he should be a virtual lock to go in the first two rounds. Gainwell’s best NFL comparison is Alvin Kamara, which may sound a bit optimistic; but he has the potential to be that good.

4. Javonte Williams, North Carolina, Jr.

He was a virtual unknown before this past year, but a monster 2020 season put North Carolina running back Javonte Williams on the 2021 draft radar. 11 dominant games and 22 total touchdowns later, Williams is a prospect who’s starting to get hype as a top 50 pick candidate. The 5’10 225 lb hammer fought for his status as a top flight prospect, he was the 94th ranked running back in the nation coming out of high school. He was used sparingly his first year in Chapel Hill putting up modest, but promising numbers. His sophomore season saw a big leap forward, putting up nearly 1000 yards on only 166 carries; that was only a warm up for his true breakout performance this year. Williams, who split time with fellow draftee Michael Carter, made himself a household name. He posted 1,140 yards on only 157 carries averaging over 7 yards per carry and rushing for 19 touchdowns. He also showed major growth in the pass game, reeling in 25 catches for 305 yards and 3 touchdowns. Williams has unmatched aggressiveness when he runs. He runs like a man possessed, bouncing off of defenders like a pinball and putting a hurting on anyone who stands in his way of reaching paydirt. He has impeccable balance and acceleration allowing him to break multiple tackles and rarely getting stopped for a loss of yards. He also has impressive top end speed for a bruiser back clocking in at 4.5 in the 40 yard dash. While he does not possess the raw power of Najee Harris, the receiving ability of Gainwell, or the shiftiness of Etienne; Williams does everything very well. He doesn't seem to have one glaring weakness like most prospects, allowing teams to focus on improving the positives of his game as opposed to coaching him up on the weak points. The best comparison for him is Frank Gore, if he has half the success of Gore every team that passes on him will be sorely disappointed.

5. Rhamondre Stevenson, Oklahoma, Sr.

An unranked recruit out of highschool. Rhamondre Stevenson didn’t have a clear cut path to the NFL like most recruits. He was a prolific running back at his high school, but a broken foot his senior year and academic issues hampered his chances of making it to a big program. Stevenson opted to go the JUCO route, and after a lackluster freshman year, he put himself on the map his sophomore season. He put up over 2000 yards and 16 TDs on only 222 carries. That caught the eye of Lincoln Riley and the Oklahoma Sooners who brought him in to split carries with future Ohio State transfer Trey Sermon. He only rushed 64 times but gained 515 yards and scored six touchdowns. As the season neared to an end Stevenson once again found himself in a tough spot. He was suspended for a failed drug test before The Peach Bowl earning him a six game suspension that carries over into 2020. When he returned from his suspension he played like a man possessed. Between his six regular season games and The Cotton Bowl he put up 850 yards and 8 TDs. Stevenson is a human battering ram at 6’0 and 245lbs, he spends no effort running around people; he runs through them. He doesn’t have great top speed but he is pretty agile for a man of his size. He can stop and start on a dime and will regularly bounce a play outside when his running lanes are closed. He’s the type of back you line up in 12 personnel in short yardage situations and just let him bully his way to a first down or touchdown. Stevenson is not known for his pass catching, in a league that is very pass happy this could really hurt his draft stock. He also doesn’t have much elusiveness in the open field, he may be powerful but NFL defenders can’t just be shrugged off which could give him some trouble gaining yards after contact. The player comparison that comes to mind is LeGarrette Blount.

6. Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State, Jr.

Hubbard was slated as RB1 after his fantastic 2019 season where he rushed for 2,094 yards , 6.4 YPC and 21 TDs, yes you read that right. He had a chance to go to the draft last year as a redshirt sophomore but he decided to return to Oklahoma state. While some guys can significantly raise their draft stock by going back to school, Hubbard could only really go down after the season he had in 2019. Hedging his bet did not work out in his favor, Hubbard saw a massive downturn in every major statistical category during the 2020 season posting only 625 yards and 5 TDs. The down year in production and a deeper running back class has taken Hubbard from the top ranked running back on many boards down to the 3-5 range. That doesn’t mean the talent that made him so enticing is not still there. He has great footwork, vision and acceleration; allowing him to wait until the very last moment to find the hole and explode through it. While he is not a track star, Hubbard has nice speed paired with incredible burst. A lot of guys need a few yards to get into high gear, all Hubbard needs is one step. He has a suddenness about him combined with elite vision and you have a guy who can consistently shake would-be tacklers. Unfortunately Hubbard has a pretty lean frame and has a hard time getting the extra yards after contact. In the NFL clean running lanes are hard to come by, and there are a lot of plays where you need to put your shoulder down and create your own gap. He also wasn’t asked to do much in the way of pass protection during his time at Oklahoma State, in a passing league you need your RBs to be proficient picking up the blitz or they may find themselves on the bench more often than not. Hubbard has a lot to like but the concerns have pushed him from a top 50 lock to a fringe top 100 player. Hubbard has some James Conner in him, its just a question if he will be a 2018 version of Conner or a 2020 version.

7. Michael Carter, North Carolina, Sr.

Michael Carter was the lightning half of North Carolina’s “Thunder and Lightning” duo (more on thunder later). Carter has been one of the most consistent running backs in the country posting over 500 rushing and 100 receiving yards in each of his four years as a Tar Heel while never amassing over 200 touches and never coughing up a single fumble. He was never a “feature back” always splitting carries, so his workload is much lighter than your typical 4 year contributor. He has improved his rushing and receiving production in each season and is now primed to be a coveted player in this years draft cycle. Carter is only 5’7 but comes in at a stocky 200lbs, he won’t bull anyone over but his squat frame helps him bounce off of defenders. He is ultra agile and has excellent change of direction in the open field making him one of the hardest players to bring down in the nation. Carter is also a natural receiver. He uses his agility and crisp route running to get open with ease out of the backfield and in the slot. He has the potential to be a 50+ catch guy in the NFL. Carter can be a bit inconsistent when it comes to patience and picking his holes, he is quick to use his agility and try to bounce a run to the outside even when nothing is there for him. He could also stand to improve his blitz pick up a bit, but nobody is expecting much in that department from a 5’7 spark plug. Carter may be slippery and deceptively powerful but would be best served in a platoon where he can get 10-12 touches per game. Michael Carter compares somewhere between Tarik Cohen and Darren Sproles.

8. Trey Sermon, Ohio State, Sr.

Trey Sermon has had many highs and lows throughout his career. He started off as a highly sought after 4-star recruit, being courted by multiple big time programs before committing to the Oklahoma Sooners. He started off his college career very promising logging carries in all 14 games of his freshman year averaging over six yards per carry and scoring five touchdowns. He took a big leap in his sophomore seasons seeing an uptick in carries and rewarding the Sooners with 947 yards and 13 TDs. He formed quite the three headed monster with Kennedy Brooks and QB Kyler Murray combining to rush for over 3,000 yards and 37 TDs. Things were looking up for Sermon heading into his third year, but his usage took a huge nose dive posting career lows across the board and was injured mid season, ending his year. He transferred to Ohio State and in six games he rushed for 675 yards and three touchdowns. Sermon doesn't have the cache of his peers, but college production isn't a direct correlation to NFL success. Sermon has good size for the position, he runs strong and never stops churning his legs; making him a load for potential tacklers. He isn't the greatest athlete with average at best open field speed, but he works well with what he has. His burst through lanes is good, and he also has some quality wiggle and cut quickness for his size. Sermon can sometimes run high which really takes away from his natural power and tenacity. He also brings almost nothing to the table as a pass catcher. His college workload could be troublesome for some teams and a bonus for others. He doesn't have a ton of tape to scout as the primary back, but he also doesn't have the wear and tear on his body that most senior running backs would have. Sermon would be best suited as a goal line and short yardage specialist in the NFL, I could see him going early on day three of the draft. Sermon reminds me of Alfred Morris.

9. Kylin Hill, Mississippi State, Sr

Kylin Hill is a 5-foot-11, 210-pound running back with one of the most well-versed skill sets at the position entering the 2021 NFL draft. Hill sustained an injury in his third game of 2020 and opted out for the rest of the year. He wasn't having a very good start to the season and may have opted out as a way to protect his draft stock. Even though he only has two full seasons in a featured role, he has provided solid productivity in every single part of his game. From running the ball with purpose, ball security, pass-catching to blocking; Hill has shown to be a very well rounded prospect. HIll is not a burner by any means but he makes up for his lack of speed with great creativity, quick cuts and intelligence running the football. When encountering a defender, Kylin Hill has an assortment of moves to avoid a tackle. He can't be easily brought down by arm tackles due to his exceptional balance. He is also a very good catcher of the football displaying soft hands and running crisp routes. One knock on Hill’s game is that he lacks a second gear and is susceptible to being brought down from behind. He sometimes lacks creativity when running the ball. You want your running back to hit the holes as they are drawn up on paper, but when the holes don't materialize you'd like to see the ability to create his own running room. He is not what you would consider a home run threat, but he consistently picks up yardage with his well rounded set of skills, and could make a nice rotational back comparable to James White.

10. Larry Rountree III, Missouri, Sr.

The senior running back out of Missouri doesn’t come with the fan fare you would expect from a highly productive SEC running back. It could be due to the team's struggles or it could be that he doesn’t have the flash that shows up on the highlight reel. He is as consistent as they come. He’s carried the ball at least 125 times in all four seasons, never posting less than 700 yards and 6 TDs. He’s got a great size and speed combo with a reported sub 4.6 40 at nearly 220 pounds. He isn’t spectacular at one particular thing but he does almost everything well. He can run through and around defenders, he has a quick first step and decent vision. He doesn’t have a lot of experience catching the ball, with under 50 catches in four years and never going over 100 yards.  One underrated but very important part of the pass game where he excelled is as a pass blocker. He has good instincts when picking up the blitz and the physicality to hold his block buying his quarterback precious time. One thing that is a bit concerning is his fall off in production over the last two years. After hitting his high water mark as a sophomore his carries, his yards per carry and 20+ yard carries have declined in each year. Still Rountree could wind up being a very steady and successful player on Sundays. If he reaches his full potential he could wind up being a Marlon Mack level player.